Institutional supercycles: an evolutionary macro-finance approach

We build upon the Minskyan concepts of ‘thwarting mechanisms’ and ‘supercycles’ to develop a framework for analysing dynamic evolutionary interactions between macrofinancial, institutional political processes. Thwarting mechanisms are structures that aim stabilise macrofinancial system. The effectiveness these changes over time as result profit-seeking innovations long-run destabilising New emerge in response, influenced by ideological conflicts. This generates secular cyclical pattern capitalism, ‘supercycle’, with longer duration than standard business financial cycles. To illustrate this, we stability index which use identify two supercycles G7 countries post-war period. label industrial capitalism supercycle globalisation supercycle. For each, apply four-phase classification system, based on institutions, customs stabilising can be used explain anticipate macro thus developments, moves beyond approaches developments treated exogenous shocks.